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The Week Of:
December20,1999

Boeing Reveals Unannounced Orders

By Rebecca Rayko
AWN Editor

Boeing Commercial Airplanes Group president Alan Mulally all along has insisted that deliveries, not orders, are the true indicator of who the market leader is. Nonetheless, Boeing has decided that enough is enough.

The company changed the way it reports its commercial aircraft orders last week to the same one used by archrival Airbus Industrie, which includes planned orders as part of its overall tally. Click here to see the new list.

This, of course, was vehemently denied by Airbus sales chief John Leahy last week, but most industry observers, including a former Airbus executive who spoke to AWN, believe that Airbus has always included unannounced orders in its records.

Boeing's commercial orderbook was boosted by 163 "unannounced" orders on Wednesday due to the policy change. Now the Seattle-based manufacturer can include planned orders from airline customers, which for various reasons have requested the orders to remain anonymous. The result: a whopping $9 billion in value to the Boeing orderbook.

True, the order tally now appears a bit more in kilter (Boeing 368 vs Airbus 427) between the rival manufacturers, but the numbers still say that Airbus will win the order contest this year.

"One year is not indicative of a long-term leadership position," Mulally replied.

Mulally defended the policy switch on several fronts. "We are adding visibility to our leadership position," "It is important that we know what the airlines are doing," and "It's good for Boeing employees," were among Mulally's responses at the press briefing last week.

It's always been Boeing's policy to let its customers announce the details of their orders, and Boeing will remain tight-lipped about certain order details even now. Both manufacturers define unannounced orders as firm orders marked by the exchange of money and a signed purchase agreement. The customer name is withheld at their request, although Airbus typically reveals the customer identity at the end of each calendar year.

Fifty of the unannounced orders are believed to belong to International Lease Finance Corp, which announced plans to buy that many Boeing 737s at the Paris Air Show in June.

Along with the order announcement change, Boeing closed the year with a major widebody order from GE Capital Aviation Services. GECAS ordered 15 Boeing 767-300ERs and five 747-400 Freighters. The 20-plane order is valued at $2.6 billion at list prices.

The fact that this order, and at least 50 from the unannounced order list, come from leasing companies suggests that pricing may not be great, said one analyst. ILFC and GE, the largest and second-largest leasing companies in the world, tend to be quite opportunistic when it comes to pricing deals. The fact that the ILFC order has taken over six months to negotiate supports this view.

The five GECAS 747-400Fs are believed to be leased to Alitalia.

Whether the newly narrowed gap in marketshare will reassure nervous Boeing investors remains to be seen. As it now stands, Boeing has increased its share of total new orders booked in 1999 to 45%; however, Airbus has 55% of the orders for narrowbodies and 54% of the widebody orders.

Analysts at Merrill Lynch expect Boeing and Airbus to announce more orders before the year ends.



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