By Rebecca Rayko
AWN Editor
Boeing Commercial Airplanes Group president Alan Mulally all along has
insisted that deliveries, not orders, are the true indicator of who the
market leader is. Nonetheless, Boeing has decided that enough is enough.
The company changed the way it reports its commercial aircraft orders last
week to the same one used by archrival Airbus Industrie, which includes
planned orders as part of its overall tally. Click here to see the new list.
This, of course, was vehemently denied by Airbus sales chief John Leahy last
week, but most industry observers, including a former Airbus executive who
spoke to AWN, believe that Airbus has always included unannounced orders in
its records.
Boeing's commercial orderbook was boosted by 163 "unannounced" orders on
Wednesday due to the policy change. Now the Seattle-based manufacturer can
include planned orders from airline customers, which for various reasons
have requested the orders to remain anonymous. The result: a whopping $9
billion in value to the Boeing orderbook.
True, the order tally now appears a bit more in kilter (Boeing 368 vs Airbus
427) between the rival manufacturers, but the numbers still say that Airbus
will win the order contest this year.
"One year is not indicative of a long-term leadership position," Mulally
replied.
Mulally defended the policy switch on several fronts. "We are adding
visibility to our leadership position," "It is important that we know what
the airlines are doing," and "It's good for Boeing employees," were among
Mulally's responses at the press briefing last week.
It's always been Boeing's policy to let its customers announce the details
of their orders, and Boeing will remain tight-lipped about certain order
details even now. Both manufacturers define unannounced orders as firm
orders marked by the exchange of money and a signed purchase agreement. The
customer name is withheld at their request, although Airbus typically
reveals the customer identity at the end of each calendar year.
Fifty of the unannounced orders are believed to belong to International
Lease Finance Corp, which announced plans to buy that many Boeing 737s at
the Paris Air Show in June.
Along with the order announcement change, Boeing closed the year with a
major widebody order from GE Capital Aviation Services. GECAS ordered 15
Boeing 767-300ERs and five 747-400 Freighters. The 20-plane order is valued
at $2.6 billion at list prices.
The fact that this order, and at least 50 from the unannounced order list,
come from leasing companies suggests that pricing may not be great, said one
analyst. ILFC and GE, the largest and second-largest leasing companies in
the world, tend to be quite opportunistic when it comes to pricing deals.
The fact that the ILFC order has taken over six months to negotiate supports
this view.
The five GECAS 747-400Fs are believed to be leased to Alitalia.
Whether the newly narrowed gap in marketshare will reassure nervous Boeing
investors remains to be seen. As it now stands, Boeing has increased its
share of total new orders booked in 1999 to 45%; however, Airbus has 55% of
the orders for narrowbodies and 54% of the widebody orders.
Analysts at Merrill Lynch expect Boeing and Airbus to announce more orders
before the year ends.