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Week of September 22, 1997

Russian Fighters To The Pacific Rim

Following the first success in Malaysia in three years ago when MAPO sold 16 MiG-29SM and 2 MiG-29UB fighters, Russia seems to have acquired two new customers in the region, Philippines and Indonesia.

The Philippines are going to spend $12 billion over 15 years on modernisation of their armed forces, considering the F-18, F-16, Kfir-2000, Mirage2000 and MiG-29FM as contenders for its Air Force. It is expected that the MiG-29 and F-18 will be chosen, like in Malaysia. The selection is reportedly to be made by the end of this year. In all, 18 fighters can be ordered.

Officially, Russia offered the MiG-29 to the Philippines this spring, when Boris Kuzyk, an adviser to President Yeltsin on military-technical cooperation with foreign countries, visited Manila. The talks continued in September, when Philippine President Fidel Ramos paid a visit to Moscow. He drew the attention of the Russian leadership to the disbalance in trade between the two countries. The Russian export in 1996 was $460 million, chiefly sheet metal and metal scrap, whereas the Philippines exported cloth and consumer goods worth merely $15 million.

In an interview to Russian journalists, Ramos said, "We have not made a certain decision on military procurement plans yet, but we certainly need assistance in fulfilling re-armament of our armed forces from our neighbours and friends, including Russia. To make a choice, we need to know more about spare parts and maintenance issues regarding the MiGs offered." The acuteness of those issues will be reduced in October, with the opening of a MAPO techical centre in Malaysia.

Another problem is payment. The president continues, "We are interested in obtaining new technologies from developed countries, which are potential suppliers of military equipment to our army. But we are not used to paying cash for military equipment. We try to develop local manufacture, to create new jobs. Barter deals and payment in kind are possible. Those are the issues we are talking about now."

It is difficult to estimate how much the Philippines would have to pay for MiGs. The exact sum will depend upon a particular version and weapons systems. In the last three years the basic airframe was considerably modified. Now the plane is available with an in-flight refuelling system, new radar offering two-target engagement capability and a new cockpit with liquid-crystal displays. Further modifications will have thrust-vectoring systems. According to Anatoly Belosvet, first deputy general director of MAPO MiG, Mikoyan the MiG-29 arsenal will soon be extended with the X-31 high-speed missile.

With thrust-vectoring and RVV-AE beyond-vision-range radar active-homing missiles the MiG-29 will remain a serious rival to any western fighter available for export by the year 2010.

Despite numerous advantages of the MiG-29, another Pacific Rim country - Indonesia - has chosen the Su-27-family aircraft. Although more expensive and complex, the Su-27 offers a longer combat range, which is important to a country spread over a territory of 1,904 thousand square km, consisting of a myriad of islands with a poorly-developed network of airports.

In the Late-Fifties and Early-Sixties the Soviet Union delivered about 200 aircraft to Indonesia, including then-brand-new Tu-16 and Il-28 bombers (25 and over-30 aircraft, respectively), MiG-19 and MiG-21 fighters (10 and 20). In the mid-Sixties, however, military cooperation was terminated.

Indonesia wants to procure 12 Su-30Ks and 8 Mi-17-1Vs. The appropriate letter of intent was signed on 29 August in Moscow.

Previous orders for those types came from India (worth $1.6 billion for 40 Su-30MKIs) and Columbia (worth $45 million for 10 Mi-17s). Russia hopes to have the Indonesian contract signed by the end of this year. Estimated at $500 million, the deal will cover the supply of munitions and spare parts, as well as technical assistance in keeping aircraft operational. The first batch of Su-30Ks may be delivered in 2000.

Partly, the deal would be paid by deliveries of coffee, palm oil, rubber and other such products. Although Russia does not mind barter deals, it demands that a bigger part of the deal be paid in hard currency. In its turn, Indonesia agrees to pay 20% in hard currency and 80% in kind. It is rumoured that the countries may finally agree on a 50/50 principle.

If an understanding of financial matters is found, Indonesia may also order 50 BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles and the same number of BTR-80A armoured personnel carriers. In the latter case the deal would be worth $1 billion.

Russia can earn even more. It is reported that Indonesia may spend over $2 billion on modernisation of its armed forces.


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