Week of December 1, 1997

Will The Airbus A3XX Be 20% Russian?

By Vovick Karnozov

"The process has been very dynamic, but it is a working process," says Igor Bocharov, head of the Airbus office in Moscow. No new documents have been signed since August. Bocharov says he can not predict when a detailed agreement on the A3XX would be signed, adding that it can happen only after the consortium has launched the plane's full-scale development. A decision on the latter should be taken by the end of the next year.

The A-3XX will have 555 seats in three-class layout and a range of up to 16,200 km. Volker Von Tain says the airliner should enter commercial service in 2003. Airbus roughly estimates the market demand for such a plane over the next 20 years as 1,440 aircraft worth $300 billion. The design effort would require $8-9 billion. Involvement of Russia with its huge industrial potential and rich experience in aerospace science can sufficiently reduce technological risks in creation of the proposed airliner, which is meant to be the biggest and most economically effective air vehicle ever.

Answering the question of how financial risks could be divided between partners in the A3XX team, Bocharov said that without getting a sufficient number of commitments from airlines, such an expensive project as the A3XX would hardly be launched. "The plane will exist only if it gets approval from its airline customers," he added.

Because of the declining passenger traffic in the former Soviet Union, CIS operators do not show the slightest interest in high-capacity airliners in the class of the Boeing 747 and beyond (the only case of using a 747 in the CIS took place in Kazakhstan, with the whole affair ending up with a near-bankruptcy of the national carrier). Tupolev general director Igor Shevchuk says Russia will hardly ever be a A3XX user, having no routes to make use of the outstanding seat capacity of the plane.

It is still unclear what the Russian side would be responsible for. At MAKS'97 Igor Shevchuk said that his company was likely to design the centre fuselage section, which then would be manufactured at Aviastar factory. In October he told journalists the same about the wingbox. Seemingly, the landing gear and associated systems will be Russian, from the factories in Nizhny Novgorod and Samara.

Because of so many uncertainties, the Russian share in the A3XX has not yet been determined. Bocharov said, "The share is changing because the airplane itself has not been launched. We are talking about some 18% or 20% of Russian participation. The final figure will be set with the signing of an appropriate agreement."

Partners In Competition

Besides collaboration on the A3XX, the August agreement calls for joint work on new construction materials for future aircraft, aerodynamic studies and manufacture of some components to existing types. The Russian industry is already participating in the process of manufacturing Airbus airplanes. VSMPO of Verkhnaya Salda is fulfilling a large order for supply of 800 tons of titanium castings, whereas Rybinsk Motors is making its first parts for GE CF-6 engines to be used on Airbus aircraft.

To provide effective cooperation with their European partner, which is multi-national by its nature, the Russian side is thinking of forming a new structure with a wide range of responsibilities to coordinate the work of various Russian enterprises involved in the A3XX and other joint projects. What this new structure would be is uncertain yet, with the Ministry for Economics working hard to find an optimal solution in the frame of restructuring the Russian aerospace industry. It could happen that a powerful consortium would be established, uniting all the enterprises involved in the project.

It is worth mentioning that in August Airbus launched its first massive advertising effort in the Russian capital. It will run for six months, involving various Russian political and aerospace publications.

In accordance with the August agreement, Airbus will help Tupolev certify the Tu-204 airliner to European standards. Igor Bocharov said that the two companies have established contact between their respective departments responsible for certification process. He added that Airbus has a rich experience in working with the JAA, which is now being shared with Tupolev to enable the Russian developer to succeed in certification of its products.

Answering the question about whether the JAA-certified Tu-204 could become a competitor to Airbus airplanes, Bocharov said, "We are all for healthy competition, the competition that brings benefits to the passengers." In the medical sense the Tu-204, especially its latest version with Rolls-Royce engines and Honeywell avionics, can be an efficacious tranquillizer for some Russian carriers going mad with Lufthansa's penetration into their home market. The German carrier uses its modern, highly-effective A319s on the routes linking Frankfurt with Perm, Nizhny Novgorod, Kazan and Samara. In all, it flies to more than a dozen destinations in Russia, stealing bread from local operators with their older and less economical Tu-134s and Tu-154s.

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