The world's freighter airplane fleet is expected to double over the next two decades, with the greatest growth taking place in widebody freighters, according to the Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast 2000/2001, issued last week at Air Cargo Forum 2000 in Washington, DC.

"Nearly 70% of the fleet additions will come from modified passenger and combi airplanes,'' said Randy Baseler, Boeing Commercial Airplanes Group vice president - marketing. "This differs significantly from the passenger airplane market, due to the increasing availability of desirable, affordable airplanes that can be obtained and modified for a lower acquisition cost than new equipment.''

The forecast predicts that the long-term air cargo market will grow at an average rate of 6.4% over the next 20 years - a tripling of the market.

Air cargo growth is expected to exceed passenger traffic growth in every major region.

Baseler said the world freighter fleet is expected to nearly double from 1,676 airplanes in 1999 to nearly 3,200 by the year 2019. During that time, the industry is expected to add more than 2,600 freighter airplanes, as nearly 1,100 current freighters will be retired.

Of the 2,600 new freighters, about 1,800 airplanes will come from passenger-to-freighter modifications and 800 airplanes will be new production freighters.

"We will see particularly robust growth in Asia,'' Baseler said. ``Compared to the world average annual growth rate of 6.4% per year, intra-Asia will average 8.6%, Europe-Asia will average 7.2% and North America-Asia will average 7.7%. This phenomenal growth will increase the market share of the Asian markets."

World air cargo traffic rebounded during 1999, increasing 5.7%, after a disappointing 1998, in which traffic increased by less than 1% as a result of the Asian economic crisis.

Baseler said that the increase in the world air cargo fleet will be predominantly Boeing airplanes. In addition to producing the only complete line of new freighters, more than 75% of the existing world jetliner fleet is comprised of Boeing airplanes, including the models built in Long Beach, Calif.

The greatest increase in the world air cargo fleet will be in widebody airplanes, models such as the Boeing 747, 767, MD-11 and DC-10, he said. This airplane category ultimately will represent nearly 60% of the fleet and more than 90% of total freighter capacity, compared with about 75% today.

Boeing Freighters

Boeing's line of commercial freighters range from the 124-ton 747-400 Freighter to the 20-ton 737-700C (convertible), including the 767-300 and 757-200 Freighters. The company's early models include the 707 and DC-8.

Also in the pipeline is the Boeing 747X Stretch freighter.

The 747X Stretch is being planned to hold 4,470 cubic feet more main deck volume and 1,750 cubic feet extra lower-hold volume than the 747-400 Freighter. A 747X Stretch Freighter would become the most efficient freighter, with 23% more volume and the ability to carry 65,400 pounds of extra cargo than today's 747-400 Freighter.

In addition, a 747X Stretch Freighter will carry equivalent payload on fewer decks, with about 100,000 pounds less weight than its planned competitor, the Airbus A3XX Freighter.

Boeing is also becoming a major player in the burgeoning passenger-to-freighter conversion market. Boeing Airplane Services offers conversions for Boeing and Douglas jetliner models.

Boeing Airplane Services offers passenger and combi-to-freighter conversion programs for 747, 767, MD-11, 757, DC-10, 737 and MD-80 commercial airplane models. As the original equipment manufacturer, Boeing uses original airplane design data as well as the latest design change information in the `"special freighter'' modification process.

Also proposed by Boeing is the BC-17X (formerly known as the MD-17) to meet worldwide demand for heavy and outsize goods, such as satellites, construction equipment, and power generating equipment that are too large to fit in the doors of conventional freighters.