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June 30, 1997

Boeing McMerger Approaches US Approval Milestone This Week

This week is expected to bring the first of two approvals for the proposed merger of The Boeing Company and McDonnell Douglas Corporation. The two one-time rivals have been enduring a largely Atlantic barrage of protest for several months as vocal European opposition railed against the merger. The U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is likely to announce approval of the merger before the U.S. Independence Day holiday this week on July 4.

Some observers point to last week's travel to Brussels by one FTC commissioner as evidence of the impending approval. Commission member Mary Azcuenaga admitted that she met with the European Union's competition commissioner Karel Van Miert during her visit, but declined to discuss specific details of their conversation.

The real deadline, however, is purely legal. U.S. law requires action by the FTC within 20 days of submission of materials by the involved companies. That deadline is up July 1. While extensions can be granted, none are expected, despite the volumes of materials submitted by Boeing and McDonnell Douglas.

For its part, the EU is expected to privately share its findings on the merger on July 4th with other members of the 15 country European Union. News reports over the last two weeks have suggested that Boeing is willing to relax its exclusivity agreements with American, Continental and Delta in exchange for a favorable ruling by the European Commission. The EC has maintained that the exclusive contracts were a major sticking point in its consideration of the merger. Airbus Industrie has loudly complained that the exclusive deals not only lock it out of the market with the specific airlines, but are also illegal.

Interestingly, no complaints against the proposed merger have been voiced from other parts of the world. Airbus should pay attention to the fact that Asian countries have been noticeably quiet. While the European consortium has attempted to co-opt potential Asian competitors by forging alliances, such as their efforts with the Chinese on the 100-seat Asia Express, Airbus might do better to keep their eye on their new partner, considering China's avowed intention of becoming a producer of commercial aircraft. It's easy enough to contend that there will soon only be two producers of large commercial aircraft, but the reality is, there will be three within 10 years. As China flexes its new economic - and soon aerospace - muscle, the new player may well be the one to watch.


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